share
play prev play next
play fullscreen
1 / 44
Sıra DOSYA ADI Format Bağlantı
01. Forecasts State House Washington ppt Sunumu İndir

Transkript

[1]
RIMS IDay 2012U.S. and Washington State Economic OutlookMarch 9, 2012Fred DeKay, Ph.D.Albers School of Business and Economics
[2]
The Economic Climate:• Historical, Current, and Forecasts• GDP, Employment, and Inflation for the US and Washington State• The US Housing Market• Global ConditionsCredits: Arun Raha, Former Chief Economist of the State of Washington Economic Forecast Council http://www.erfc.wa.gov/
[3]
Conclusions:• U.S. Output has recovered to previous levels. We are growing, but slower than expected. Recent evidence is positive, but uncertainty persists.• Employment growth will lag the recovery in output. It may take two more years to get back to where we were in 2007, four or five to get to full employment.• Downside risks are high but moderating.• Washington State Economy is hampered by construction and state and local governments.
[4]
Three Questions:• Where are we now?• Where are we going?• What risks do we face?
[5]
The Current Economic ClimateOutputEmploymentInflation
[6]
The Recession: How bad was it?• Business Cycle Dating Committee:• Recession started in December 2007• Recession ended June 2009 18 months• Output fell -0.3% in 2008 and fell -3.5% in 2009.
[7]
This was the worst recession since WW IIRecessionPeak-to-trough declineRecession DurationReal GDP Employment  percent percent months1948-49 1.6 5.0 111953-54 2.5 3.4 101957-58 3.1 4.2 81960-61 0.5 2.3 101969-70 0.2 1.2 111973-75 3.2 1.9 161980 2.2 2.3 61981-82 2.6 3.1 161990-91 1.4 1.4 82001 0.7 1.7 8Average 1.8 2.6 102007-09 4.1 6.1 18Source: NBER, ERFC, Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council
[8]
GDP is Growing Again…but… slowly
[9]
…It is still far below potential
[10]
Recently, GDP growth is slow, but improvingSource: BEA, data through 2011 Q3 Data published December 22, 2011 2011: 1.7%2010: 3.0%2009: -3.5%2nd half: 2.4%
[11]
How long did it take us to recover?Growth was +3.0% in 2010, and continued to be positive in 2011, so by the 3rd quarter of 2011, we were back to the previous peak in 2007. Output is back to its previous peak, but jobs are another story.
[12]
Employment• It may take another two years to get to our previous peak.•It may take another 5 years to get back to full employment.
[13]
How long will it take us to recover?5.0 million
[14]
U.S. Unemployment RateJune 2011: 9.1%October 2011: 8.9%November 2011: 8.7%December 2011: 8.5%January 2012: 8.3%Good improvement.
[15]
The Bright Side of the NewsWe are now producing our pre-recession GDP with 5.0 million fewer jobs.Labor Productivity has increased.
[16]
Inflation- CPI• Consumer Price Index: stabilizing• 2008 : 3.8%• 2009 : -0.3%• 2010 : 1.6%• 2011 : 3.1%• Slowdowns are deflationary; excess capacity• The risk is persistent deflation• October 0.0%, Nov. 0.1%, Dec. 0.0%, Jan. 0.2%• Core rate has been 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.1%, 0.2%
[17]
Where are we going?
[18]
024681012198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009201120132015Percent UnemployedUS and WA Unemployment Rate, 1987-2015US UE Rate WA UE RateForecastsERFC Global Insights: February
[19]
Monetary Policy: Fed Funds RateHealth L-EMBA
[20]
Fiscal policy is mildly stimulativeHealth L-EMBA
[21]
SURVEY of OUTPUT FORECASTS 2012-2013• Federal Reserve Board: Low and High range: January• Congressional Budget Office: August• Governors Council of Ec. Adv.: February• Survey of Professional Forecasters by the Philadelphia Fed; May, August, November
[22]
2012-2014 OUTPUT FORECASTS• Federal Reserve Board: • Feb 29: Low and High Central Tendency:• 2012: 2.2% - 2.7%• 2013: 2.8% - 3.2%• 2014: 3.3% - 4.0%• Congressional Budget Office: December* (Does not include payroll tax cut)• 2012: 2.2% • 2013: 1.0%• 2014: 3.6%
[23]
2012-2014 OUTPUT FORECASTS• Survey of Professional Forecasters: February• 2012: 2.3%• 2013: 2.7%• 2014: 3.0%• 2015: 3.1%• WA Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors(Global Insight): February• 2012: 2.2% WA : 1.1%• 2012: 2.6% WA : 2.8%
[24]
Some GDP Forecasts are Stabilizing11 12 13 14 11 12 13 14 11 12 13 14Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
[25]
What is Needed to Sustain the Recovery?• A return to normal consumer spending patterns which depends on a virtuous circle of:• Improved employment• Recovery in the housing market and wealth• Improved Consumer Confidence• How do these look now?Health L-EMBA
[26]
Source: Standard and Poors
[27]
U.S. Housing Permits
[28]
Housing Market• Foreclosure sales still depressing prices• 8% of mortgages are seriously delinquent in the US, down from 20% in 2010• 6% seriously delinquent in Washington• 29% of house sales are distressed properties• Permits are depressed: Where are all those kids going?L-EMBA
[29]
Consumer confidence is volatileEdit Graph    Print    PDF    Save Consumer Sentiment Index, up 1.3 to 75.3 in FebruaryConsumer Confidence Index up in January© Copyright 2012, Advisor Perspectives, Inc.
[30]
The Growth of Public Debt: July 2011
[31]
Other Drivers of Future Consumer Spending•Household formation demand is accumulating•Net worth is rising•Our cars are older than ever: pent up demand•Savings is declining from 4.1% to 3.6% to 3.5% in November
[32]
• Continues to rise after a dip in 2011:• increased .4% in January 2012• 7 of 10 components rose: January 2012• increased .5% in December 2011US Index of Leading Economic Indicators
[33]
Index of Leading Economic IndicatorsUSA:https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/PressPDF_4407_1329469190.pdfEuro area:https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/PressPDF_4416_1330277142.pdf
[34]
Global Trends: GDP Growth2010 2011 2012 2013World 5.2 3.8 3.3 3.9Advanced Economies 3.2 1.6 1.2 1.9 USA 3 1.8 1.8 2.2 Euro Area 1.9 1.6 -0.5 0.8Emerging economies 7.3 6.2 5.4 5.9 Asia 9.5 7.9 7.3 7.8 China 10.4 9.2 8.2 8.8 Latin America 6.1 4.6 3.6 3.9IMF World Economic Outlook, January 2012
[35]
Global Trends: Govt. Debt/GDP%2010 2011 2012 2013World 70 70 71 71Advanced Economies 100 104 108 110 USA 98 102 108 112Euro Area 85 88 91 93 Italy 118 121 125 127 Spain 61 70 78 84 Japan 219 233 241 247Emerging economies 41 38 36 35International Monetary Fund, January 2012
[36]
2012 Positives• We are growing, but slowly• Inflation seems stable• Housing market seems to be closer to bottom• Index of Leading Economic Indicators is up• Aerospace, Software and Agriculture Exports are doing well in Washington• We will likely muddle through an slow patch in 2012
[37]
2012 Risks• Housing Market fails to stabilize: 1/4th of mortgages are underwater• Unemployment continues to restrain consumer spending and confidence• Middle East tensions are rising• Asia growth is slowing • European debt situation threatens a new recession
[38]
2012 Risks• European Debt Situation• Greece (165%), Italy(121%), Spain(70%), Ireland(109%), Portugal(103%), Eurozone(88%)• Threaten German and French Banks, which threaten the US Banks• Growth of US Public Debt: now about 102% of GDP: 2011• Political gridlock in DC
[39]
Conclusions:• We expect the U.S. and WA economies will experience slow growth, muddle through conditions.• The risk of another recession remains elevated, but has receded modestly since September.• Uncertainty remains high, but forecasts are no longer being revised downward.• Employment growth will lag the recovery in output. It may take four or five years to get to full employment.• Consumer confidence remains weak.
[40]
Conclusions:• The European debt and uncertainty in the Middle East are threats to recovery.• The federal government needs to balance the need for further stimulus in the short term with the need for a credible long term fiscal policy.• WA is likely to underperform the nation despite good performance by aerospace, software publishing, and agriculture.• The slowdown in Asian economic growth threatens Washington State. Health L-EMBA
[41]
ResourcesState of Washington Economic Forecast Council. http://www.erfc.wa.gov/Federal Reserve Economic Data Base, St. Louis Fed.http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/Standard and Poors, Case-Shiller House Price Index.Charles P. Kindleberger and Robert Aliber, Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, 5th ed.,Wiley, 2005IMF, World Economic Outlook, http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29Health L-EMBA
[42]
Inflation: Annual Rates
[43]
Health L-EMBA
[44]
Health L-EMBA